Ding! Round 23

And here...we...go. The 23rd installment of tennis' best rivalry takes place tomorrow afternoon in Miami. Both Nadal and Federer played startlingly different quarterfinal matches today, but with identical outcomes. Roger got by after just 3 games when Gilles Simon retired with a neck injury. Rafa had to sweat out a 6-2 3-6 6-3 slugfest with world number seven Tomas Berdych.

A bit odd that we're talking about a tournament semi-final here, but that's what happens when Novak Djokovic plays out of his mind and replaces Fed as number two in the world.

As far as tomorrow goes, Federer couldn't ask for more favorable circumstances. He had the early quarter and barely played. Rafa played at night and went the distance. It's an outdoor hard court, and he's got an edge from winning their last meeting in command fashion 6-3 3-6 6-1 in London last November.

On a personal note...oh man, oh man I hope Roger wins. I have a hard time watching these matches, mostly because Roger is my favorite player and no one scares the stank out of me like Rafael Nadal. On top of that, my favorite teams are on an unprecedented championship losing streak, starting with the Longhorns last year in the national title game. Then came Indy's loss to New Orleans, followed by the Rangers getting pwned by San Francisco in the World Series. (I'm not even going to mention the travesty/sham/mockery that were the '06 NBA finals. Too painful.)

That I'm comparing this match to those previous heart breakers frames the scope of this rivalry: a semi-final, yes. But it still carries the weight of a major final when these two are involved. Let's talk about what's on the line tomorrow.

For Rafa: Validation for his number one ranking. Not that he really needs it after the year he had, but losses to the likes of Nikolay Davydenko and David Ferrer earlier this year, combined with the drubbing Djokovic gave him in Indian Wells two weeks ago leave him itching to show the world that he's no one to be trifled with on the biggest stages. A win over Roger reasserts his dominance in the rivalry (he leads 14 to 8) and gives him a chance to avenge that unseemly loss to the Djoker.

For Roger: He also wants another crack at Djokovic--the man who's responsible for each of his three losses this season. In addition, each win he notches in this rivalry helps bridge the sizeable gap in his head to head record with Nadal. 9 and 14 looks infinitely better than 8 and 14, especially with the clay court season looming and an increased likelihood he'll run into Rafa given that they're now on the same side of tournament brackets. Trust me, no one in the world wants any piece of Rafael Nadal on the dirt.

The last time these two met in Miami, it was 2005, and Masters 1000 event finals were best of five contests. Nadal lead two sets and a break before Roger got it together, won the third set tie break, and cruised through the fourth and fifth sets 6-3 6-1. Check back after the match for some analysis, where we'll get into the nitty gritty of how play went and talk some actual tennis. Until then, keep your fingers crossed for Roger.

Roger Federer's Revealing T-Shirt

Interesting tweet from Jon Wertheim, Sports Illustrated's tennis guy. Federer was on the practice courts earlier today, preparing for his quarterfinal match against Gilles Simon--the same Gilles Simon that took Fed the distance in a five set heart-stopper at the Australian Open. Apparently he was wearing a t-shirt that reads "out train the game."

His choice of attire is compelling because out training the game is never really something Federer has had to do before. Oh, he's worked hard his entire career, to be sure. But from 2004 to 2007 he was on another planet, located in a different solar system. His t-shirts should have read "out wizard the game." Now, with the combination of advanced age, and other players responding to the gauntlet he spent three years throwing down, Fed must adopt a different motto.

In the past, the sheer, ungodly pace of Federer's forehand could be counted on to bail him out of most jams; now he's finding that he can't hit through opponents like he used to. In particular, Novak Djokovic seems to be exploiting this point to large measures of success. With his absurd defense, Djokovic can force Roger to hit the equivalent of three or four winners in order to win a point outright--an important distinction not accounted for in the post-match statistics.

Federer's style--flat, fast groundstrokes and aggressive all court play--is one of high risk and high reward. And in some ways, prolonging each point as much as possible is a key to success against the Swiss Maestro. If you force him to go for broke multiple times per point, you have shifted the odds of him making an error greatly in your favor.

This must be emotionally draining on Federer as much as it is physically. Imagine hitting a museum worthy inside-out forehand, only to have it returned down the line with interest. These situations lend themselves to a sort of "what do I have to do to beat this guy?" attitude that is without question an adjustment for Federer on hard courts.

So, it's a good motto for him. One he'll have to make a part of him if he's going to win another major anytime soon. As an admitted Fedophile, here's hoping.

A Quick Shout-Out to J-Ho

I'm busily working on Survivor recaps and analysis, but I thought I'd mention John Hollinger's article that went up on ESPN.com today, entitled "Truth About the Derrick Rose Story." (I'd link to it, but it's part of the insider feature on ESPN that they insist you pay for). Kind of cool to see a professional writer support your own thesis.

Hollinger's argument is that Dwight Howard is more irreplaceable than any other player in the league. But Derrick Rose makes a better story, so that's who'll be voted MVP. I expressed identical sentiments. And Hollinger cites numerous examples of voters (the media!) doing similar things in the past (Nash, which I talked about, Allen Iverson and almost Jason Kidd). Also, he plays the statistical game, as is his wont, to demonstrate that Rose fails to distinguish himself beyond his peers.

Interesting read. If you have ESPN Insider, it'd be worth your time.

Let the Battle Begin, Starting Six Weeks Ago

Season 22 of survivor has been underway for the last month and a half, and no matter how many times they load this show up, I fall for it hook, line, and sinker. Why is it so captivating? We may never know.

If you've never watched the show, this season's appeal might be lost on you without the proper back story. Here's what you need to know: Rob "Boston Rob" Mariano and Russell "Pure Evil" Hantz are the two most famous players in Survivor history, have played multiple times, and are strategic powerhouses. They played together for the first time two seasons ago, during "Heroes vs. Villains" where Russell famously flipped the Villains tribe against Rob, voted him out, and sparked the heated "Who's the best Survivor player ever?" debate.

"Redemption Island" is genius insofar as it provides a battleground to help answer this question. The first episode opened as most first episodes do, two teams being helicoptered in to meet with Jeff Probst on the beach before setting off for camp. But wait! A second helicopter descends dropping off Rob and Russell, complete with glowing introductions from Rob's man crush, Probst. They're each assigned to a tribe, and the rematch is on.

On top of that, the game's format is changed with the introduction of Redemption Island, a halfway house between tribal council and home. Instead of going straight home after being voted out, players make a pit stop at Redemption Island. (I know, the cheese on Survivor knows no limit. It feels like a title that should only be pronounced by Gob Bluth). Here players wait for the next person to be voted out and then face off in a challenge to stay alive in the game. At first, the show made it sound like they'd be cage-fighting shirtless, or at least doing some sort of American Gladiator-esque feat of strength like platform jousting. Alas, the challenges are just knot tying competitions and domino building. What a shame.

I'm planning on recapping each episode for the rest of the season, starting with retroactive diaries for the first six episodes. So watch for those if you haven't been following the season and then check back each week for episode analysis.

These Aren't the MVP Candidates You're Looking For

The NBA MVP race is all but wrapped up. But should it be? Rhombus Magazine editor Steve Pierce recently tweeted a link to a this comparison of likely MVP Derrick Rose with Oklahoma City point guard Russell Westbrook. Their stats are scary similar. So why is it that Rose is far and away the MVP leader, while other contenders aren't getting much love (i.e. Westbrook, Dwight Howard, LeBron James, etc.)?

Well, it's an interesting question that can't be answered definitely. But could part of the answer, at least, be that sportwriters (who vote on the award) want Derrick Rose to be the MVP? You have to admit, it makes a heck of a story. The Bulls are in first place, he's revamped his outside shot and become a threat from anywhere on the court, and he can finish better than anyone in the game right now. This provides an almost inexhaustible highlight reel of circus shots in traffic. On top of that, during the whole free agency debacle that left egg on ESPN's face (two words: "The" and "Decision."), Derrick Rose felt spurned when neither Dwyane Wade nor LeBron returned his phone calls. So his renaissance is a desire to beat the guys that so callously dissed him. Great narrative.

So what's going on here? It kind of seems like that scene from the original Star Wars, where Obi-Wan gets past the storm troopers with his Jedi powers, persuading them that C-3P0 and R2-D2 weren't, in fact, the droids they were looking for. Which of course they were.

And in the search for the league's most valuable player, fans searching for other viable candidates are being told "these aren't the MVP candidates you're looking for."

Now the catch: Derrick Rose is a fine choice for MVP--one that wouldn't give rise to any complaints from me. But the question is not whether he deserves it. Rather, are our opinions being influenced by the very people who vote on the award--the media? An example:

Steve Nash was the league MVP in 2004-2005. His stat line: 15.5 PPG; 11.5 APG; 3.3 RPG; .502 FG %; 1.0 Steals; 3.3 TOs.

This year: 15.5 PPG; 11.4 APG; 3.6 RPG; .497 FG %; .6 Steals; 3.6 TOs.

So why isn't Nash in the discussion this year, when he's performing at an identical level? Well the Suns are going to miss the playoffs and aren't a premiere team in the league. And in 2005, the narrative was better--he'd turned the Suns around, they were a contender, he was someone other than Shaq or Tim Duncan, and he was a point guard who wasn't the prototypical NBA player. Writers ate this up with a spoon and asked for seconds. (Literally. He was voted MVP the following year as well).

Of course, Steve Nash is a fantastic basketball player and a deserving choice. But he's a deserving choice every year. And he's fortunate that his success made a great story for a couple years or it's likely he wouldn't have been considered.

Now a thought experiment. Suppose someone kidnaps you, and locks you in that weird fish tank thing The Others put Jack in for the first half of LOST Season 3. And they force you to watch every single game of the NBA season. (This is coincidentally Ben Wagner's dream job, if there's anyone out there who does this. Send him an email.) During this forced viewing, you are not allowed to read any media of any kind. No commentary will be audible during the broadcasts. Would Derrick Rose be your MVP choice? Perhaps.

But would it be such a landslide? Something to think about.

The Tower of Tandil Returns...

On the off chance you follow the ATP World Tour, you've probably heard this good news: Juan Martin Del Potro is BACK! His wrist injury came at the worst possible time--almost immediately after winning the 2009 U.S. Open and sidelined him for the entire 2010 season. But if you watched any of the Sony Ericsson Open Sunday, you saw him vaporizing forehands against world no. 4 Robin Soderling in a 6-3 6-2 clinic.

This is really good news, especially at a time when Novak Djokovic looks poised to bounce around the stranglehold Federer/Nadal have on the men's game. In an article for Rhombus Magazine I outlined how Federer's dynamic style has reshaped men's tennis. This sort of multi-faceted game is just what Del Potro has to offer--and he's 6' 6'' to boot. Really, quite unfair. Check out the highlights here. How, in the WORLD, does he hit that winner at 1:15? Soderling has the entire court, hits a screamer to the corner, and DelPo runs it down and murders it. Jaw-dropping.

This season just got markedly more interesting.

In Case You Forgot How Good MJ Was...

As an Econ Nerd, I gravitate towards graphical representations when possible. My buddy Grant passed on this fantastic comparison of Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan:




Of course this can be argued endlessly, but Kobe Bryant is (maybe) the most dominant player in the NBA today. And Jordan inhabits the penthouse in the greatest of all time debate, without really much dissension. Since he hasn't played for so long, it's easy to start trying to move someone else in with him. And maybe we're at the point of trying to compare across different generations. But what stands out from the above table is tenacity in MJ's game. More points, but with more assists, rebounds, blocks, and steals than the current NBA alpha dog. #perspective.

I'm On My Go Go Gadget Flow

And so it begins. We'll see if it continues, but for now my wife Natalie has inspired me to start recording some of my thoughts. Blog style. So here we have it: The Go Go Gadget Flow Blog. The title is an extremely blatant reference to rapper Lupe Fiasco, mostly because I'll be writing about anything that comes to mind, HOPEFULLY in some sort of cohesive flow. Expect updates on TV shows, sports topics, music, and maybe (if I'm feeling brave) economics.

Natalie capably handles our family blog, so if you have any interest be sure to check it out here.