Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Some Initial Thoughts on the NBA Playoffs

In my mind, (which means the following is open for debate) the NBA has distanced itself far beyond college basketball in terms of excitement and relevance. [See Championship Game, Butler vs. Connecticut.] March Madness is fun. But it has little to do with the quality of basketball, and more to do with the fact that Americans like prognosticating, and gambling, and combining the two over the course of three weeks.

The much more compelling tournament is the NBA playoffs, which start in eleven days. We all may despise LeBron James for the puppet show he and his cohorts pulled this summer, but admittedly we owe him for it. The competitive fury it instilled in the rest of the league has yielded the most entertaining NBA season in memory. (Indeed this sort of rage billows in rookie Blake Griffin [playing for a non-contender], evoking a withering stare-down any time someone accidentally brushes him as they pass by--Blake, let's tone it down a little, huh?)

The above indicates a postseason that should be off the charts in all categories. Far from an exhaustive preview, I just have a few preliminary musings on the current situation.

First, no one in the West is playing on the Lakers' level. Really, it's not close. Except that I wouldn't count any team with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook out of any playoff series for the next ten years. But San Antonio is on the verge of collapse, Dallas looks unable to get things going, and the Nuggets are lacking the talent to put away an elite team four times in seven games. I don't think it's a stretch to say the Lakers are in good position to make their fourth straight Finals appearance.

What's more interesting, is the race in the extremely top-heavy Eastern Conference. Chicago, Miami, Boston, Orlando. At this point, put names in a hat and draw--no way of knowing who wins a best of seven between any of these four teams. We'll have to just sit back and watch the slugfests. But what happens if Miami gets through to the Finals and meets Los Angeles?

It just so happens that LA looks like the favorite to win it all, just so long as the team they meet for the championship isn't Miami.

Consider Miami's weakness--strong point guard play. A slashing, distributing point guard gives the Heat fits since they don't have size to stop him inside the paint, and the subsequent collapse inside opens up shooters for wide open looks from 18+ feet. Jameer Nelson, Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo, and Tony Parker have each dissected the Heat D with this blueprint.

The Lakers posses an impressive array of offensive weapons, not the least of which being the best player in the game today. But a quick, get-to-the-hoop point guard, they do not have. They devotedly play Phil Jackson's triangle offense, wherein the traditional point guard doesn't really exist. The Heat's season sweep of the Lakers may be offered as evidence of this match-up problem. Will the Lakers adjust, letting the nimble Shannon Brown drive and distribute? Not likely. I doubt Phil Jackson will counter 11 Championships worth of experience. And if that's the case, everyone's nightmare scenario might be closer than we all (most of all Preston Johnson) want to admit.

But don't worry just yet--of the above mentioned point guards that Miami can't deal with, three of the four play in the Eastern Conference. You may now exhale.

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